***Update****
Today, 4th May, most Italian suppliers are restarting production. There will be some delays to availability, though, depending upon stock levels and the ability of subcontractors to supply.
Some French suppliers are also restarting production.
***Update***
I was going to keep this post updated on a country-by-country basis as our suppliers notify us about what is going on. but changes are too frequent, and individual companies are responding to them in different ways. However, the general situation does not change:
staff are working from home, so there is little change in our ability to resolve queries, finalize custom orders, check stock levels, &c.
Though a few suppliers have decided to close down completely, most are still delivering, Where national regulations prevent warehouse staff even going to work, these restrictions are expected to be short lived.
So you can carry on pretty much as usual.
******
Although fine lighting is made all over the world, the response to the COVID-19 pandemic is remarkably consistent.
However, we know three things:
the situation will get worse before it gets better
the return to full normality will not be so consistent, and
it will be later than is being suggested.
If you don't want to read any more of this post, the take-away is: specify and order as soon as possible!
Now for a more nuanced summary, that you can share with clients.
SPECIFYING
Almost all our suppliers' staff who can work from home (office staff, basically) are doing so. This means that they are available to answer queries about specifications, customization &c. You will notice very little change until key personnel are struck down. We have already had one project delayed by a death (in Italy).
SUPPLYING
Whereas office work is relatively unaffected, when it comes to physical goods, the situation is more complex.
Manufacturing
Most factories (not all) are able to remain open for the moment. However:
they will start losing key staff (most fine lighting factories and workshops are small, so they often only have one person able to carry out a particular task)
supply to them of sub-assemblies and raw materials will be erratic. So far, the only problem has been LEDs from China, but this will change. Usually, the absence of a single component is enough to halt production
governments can forbid the movement of non-essential people, preventing staff even getting to the factory.
Stock levels
Because most production staff are still able to get into work, stock levels are currently relatively normal. But this will change. What no-one can predict is when things will be "back to normal". This means that it is already becoming impossible to predict lead times!!! Note that key suppliers to some factories (who tend to be small also) may collapse, because they've gone bankrupt or the owner has died. The factory will have to find a new supplier. If the replacement part is not identical, the luminaire will have to be redesigned, and then sent to the laboratory to be re-certified, all of which takes time.
SHIPPING
It is not much good if the lights are in the warehouse but they can't be shipped out.
At the moment, even where governments are restricting the movement of people, freight is still allowed to flow. There will be hiatuses, though:
there may soon be a shortage of drivers, customs officers &c.
goods sent by air frequently go in in the hold of passenger planes. Scheduled services are being cut back dramatically, and some local airports are being closed completely.
BACK TO NORMAL?
You can now see why there will not be a specific moment when everything is back to normal. This again means that lead times cannot be guaranteed. Nor can prices!!!
As production ramps up again, it will be on a first come, first served basis, and there will be BIG backlogs! So you must get orders confirmed as soon as you can, so as to be at the front of the queue (even if that means the lights arrive sooner than needed) and also to lock in the current prices.
IN OTHER WORDS...
...as I said, specify and order as soon as possible!
We are still working, from home, and I expect you are too. But any of us could suddenly be struck down and not able to work. We wouldn't want to be worrying about an order that should and could already have been placed.
Clients
In our experience, delays are not caused by the interior/lighting designer but by clients. They won't make up their mind, and/or they don't confirm the order by making the initial payment. So do share the gist of this post with them. We don't want the clients slagging off you or us because lights were not received when they wanted them to be, when the fault was a delay that they themselves caused!!! End of rant.
